23.10.2009

Maria Amaryan's report at the conference "Non-traditional Security Threats and Regional Cooperation in Southern Caucasus", organised by the NATO Science for Peace and Security Programme in Istanbul:  

Problems faced by the South Caucasian countries in relation with the recent geopolitical changes

A number of events that occurred in the past 15-20 years have led to critical geopolitical rearrangements and provided serious opportunities for Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, but at the same time caused significant difficulties for them. Let me briefly mention some of those recent events:

- The breakup of the USSR and the socialist bloc, with establishment of new independent states; united geopolitical and geoeconomic space on the former USSR territory went into oblivion. That was accompanied by the weakening of Russia’s influence in the former Soviet territory, including the South Caucasus, and by entry of new actors – EU, NATO, USA, Turkey, China, Iran and so forth.
- As Russia was not able to offer an attractive model of cooperation for the CIS member countries, the latter entered the process of movement towards other frameworks and security systems. For instance, Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Moldova entered the World Trade Organisation, which meant the disappearance of the CIS common economic sphere; Azerbaijan built oil and gas pipelines that circumvent Russia; Kazakhstan agreed to export a fraction of its oil to Europe by the route circumventing Russia; on the territory of some Central Asian states – including Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, members of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organinsation – American and NATO troops were deployed; Georgia’s authorities made a political decision about joining the NATO; Ukraine set European integration as its principal goal.
- The EU and NATO expansion towards the East took place.
- Large-scale anti-terrorist operations were launched, which expanded significantly after the terrorist attack on the United States in September 2001.
- Russia and the Western countries have been actively cooperating in anti-terrorist struggle, which still goes on in Afghanistan.
- Democratic processes have been developing in the world.
- The world economy was more influenced by market forces.
- Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia joined the OSCE and the Council of Europe.
- Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have been actively cooperating with the NATO and EU.
- Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have been actively cooperating with the United States in the military sphere; since 2002, the US have been helping the South Caucasian countries in upgrading of their armies and training of anti-terrorist units.

Moreover, in the past 5-6 years several events have occurred that have had significant influence on the global processes as well as on the developments in the South Caucasus, making this region globally important:

- A new wave of democratisation began in the post-Soviet space, the so-called ‘colour revolutions’ in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan in 2003-2005. It turns out that the democratisation process still goes on: the 2009 parliamentary elections in Moldova resulted in defeat of the Communist party and transfer of power to democratic forces that aspire for European integration.
- Russia’s energy policy has been hardening, and that resulted not only in problems in Russia’s relations with Ukraine and EU, but with Belarus as well
- Russia changed its foreign policy priorities – that was marked by the known speech by President Vladimir Putin at the Munich Conference on February 10, 2007.
- Russia suspended or abolished some treaties that had been concluded during the period of improvement of relations with the West; most significantly, Russia suspended its participation in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, which provided, particularly, for quotas for the South Caucasian states.
- Russia launched ‘foodstuff wars’ against some CIS members and Poland; since early 2006, Russian authorities banned import of meat and dairy products from Ukraine, wine and mineral water from Georgia, later import of Moldavian wine, meat and dairy products was forbidden, and most recently, in 2009, also import of meat and dairy products from Belarus.
- The EU and USA have been attempting to diversify the sources and transportation routes of carbohydrates.
- The South Caucasus became the transit region for transportation of hydrocarbons in East-West direction. Such significant international projects were launched as oil pipelines – Baku-Tbilisi-Supsa and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, gas pipelines – Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum and Iran-Armenia, as well as several other projects. The issue of diversification of transport corridors between the Caspian region and Europe is especially crucial nowadays, as Russia’s energy policy is really complicated and unpredictable.
- Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have been actively participating in anti-terrorist operations. All three countries have been participating in peacekeeping operations in Iraq and Kosovo. Azerbaijan and Georgia have also been participating in the peacekeeping operation in Afghanistan.
- The structure of the military balance in the South Caucasus has changed both qualitatively and quantitatively: the region has become more militarised, cooperation with the US and NATO in the military sphere has been expanding.
- The 2008 Russo-Georgian war also led to changes in the structure of the military balance in the South Caucasus; Russian bases have been deployed in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
- The situation has been influenced by the factor of the Kosovo precedent and Russia’s recognition of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia on August 26, 2008. Recognition by Nicaragua followed, and on September 9, 2009 Venezuela also followed suit; in September 2009 deputy minister of foreign affairs of Turkey paid a visit to Abkhazia.
- Armenian-Turkish initiatives concerning normalisation of relations have led to signing of protocols about establishment of diplomatic relations and development of bilateral relations. In fact, Armenia and Turkey began the process of establishment of official relations without preconditions.
- After President Barack Obama’s inauguration, attempts to find a common ground with Russia, to withdraw from Iraq, to change the policy towards Iran and to close the prison at Guantanamo have been made. In September 2009 the United States abandoned the project of deployment of anti-missile defence components in Central Europe, and in October Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a statement about the readiness of the United States to solve global and regional problems with their partners. As a matter of fact, the US agreed with the Russian concept of multipolar world.
- President Obama’s concessions notwithstanding, West’s relations with Russia remain troubled.
- In summer 2009 Russia’s Duma agreed to expand the possibilities for engagement of the Russian army abroad.
- Extending of uranium enrichment by Iran and its secrecy level with difficulty of access by IAEA inspections have worsened the relations of the United States and EU with Iran.
- Projects in the sphere of energy developed in cooperation with Iran. Recently, Armenia and Iran have planned to build an oil refinery in Armenia and to begin construction of the second part of Iran-Armenia gas pipeline.

This is the list of some important events that influence the global and regional developments. It may be noted that all those events are interrelated. And they assign a more important role in international affairs to the South Caucasus. This is also demonstrated in the visits to the region: during the recent three years US secretaries of defence paid several visits to Azerbaijan and Georgia, on May 10, 2005 Georgia was visited by US President George W. Bush, and on June 29, 2007 UN Secretary Ban Ki-moon was in Georgia on an official visit. Several summits with participation of presidents of Georgia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine and other states have been organised in Baku during the recent few years.

The mechanisms and potential for international involvement

Having recognised the importance of situation in the South Caucasus and its complicated nature, the international community since 2008 began to participate in the regional affairs more actively. The most important frameworks of international involvement are the following:

1. The OSCE Minsk Group is the framework for resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Presently, the updated Madrid principles are being discussed.
2. The framework for normalisation of Armenian-Turkish relations. Although the negotiation process under way during the last two years has been mediated by the Swiss, the framework involves the United States, EU and Russia. It seems that there has been a consensus between the United States and Russia about the need to have Armenian-Turkish relations normalised and the border opened, as each party perceives the process as beneficial for itself.
3. The Sarkozy-Medvedev framework and the conflict resolution in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. President Sarkozy’s active mediation during the August 2008 crisis helped to stop the advancement of Russian military offensive against Georgia. EU, USA and OSCE, as well as several European states played an important role, too.

Possible establishment of diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey and opening of the border may, in close future, change the atmosphere in the entire region significantly,  setting a context for cooperation between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia in the future. It is also very important that presently there is a consensus between the United States, EU and Russia on the issue of rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey. For the US and EU, Armenian-Turkish reconciliation is an important goal, as it would secure the functioning of pipelines and other transportation projects in the region. Besides, it is also important for the US to let Armenia choose between the West and Russia in the future. It is quite interesting that presently Russia also shows its interest in normalisation of Armenian-Turkish relations. Certainly, opening of the border would result in diminishing Armenia’s dependence on Georgia for transit, and that suits the Kremlin’s interests. Besides, Russian companies control Armenia’s railways and electric plants, which may get access to Turkey’s markets.
Of course, there is a serious risk that the protocols would not withstand a scrutiny by the Turkish parliament or the ratification process may be postponed because of the unsolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It is known that Turkey hopes to see some progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution process soon. However, it seems that the ratification process will be concluded successfully, because the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement has been caused by objective reasons and Turkey is interested in it as much as Armenia. Turkey recognises the new challenges and threats that emerged after the 2008 Russo-Georgian war and understands the importance of peace and cooperation in the South Caucasus. It was not accidental that immediately after the Russo-Georgian war Turkey proposed creation of the so-called Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform. At the same time, Turkey admitted the need to consider Russia’s regional interests and accepted Moscow’s proposal for the South Stream pipeline construction project. Besides, if Turkey settles its relations with Armenia, another obstacle for its EU membership will be removed. Therefore, though Turkey has been backing Azerbaijan on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, it probably will not hamper ratification of the protocols.